A combination of strong earnings and economic growth, and hopes of the Federal Reserve ending the rate-hike cycle have pushed gross buying of Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (IPO) to a new high. In 2023, FPIs have been gross buyers of shares worth Rs 25.5 trillion, the highest ever in a calendar year. FPIs also sold shares worth Rs 23.9 trillion. On a net basis, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1.6 trillion, the highest since 2020.
Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 77.66 lakh crore in 2024, helped by an overall optimistic trend in equities, where the BSE Sensex surged over 8 per cent. Analysts said the year witnessed a tug of war between the bulls and bears marked by volatility but, despite the uncertainties around the world, the Indian markets sustained the pressure and delivered impressive returns.
Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the biggest event that would drive sentiments in the domestic stock market this week, besides a host of macroeconomic data from the global front and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The Indian equity market had an exceptional last week, with both the Nifty and Sensex hitting their all-time high levels on Thursday.
In the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra tanked over 6 per cent after the company cut the prices of its SUV models to boost demand. Mahindra & Mahindra said its XUV700's fully-loaded AX7 range now starts at Rs 19.49 lakh, a price cut of over Rs 2 lakh. Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, State Bank of India, JSW Steel, Tata Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank were other losers.
India needs foreign exchange buffer reserves to insulate itself from exchange rate volatility as we have "no friends" for swap lines and Japan was the only country that helped during the taper tantrum in 2013, former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Tuesday. Participating in a virtual event organised by economic think tank NCAER, Rajan said during the taper tantrum in 2013, India asked for swap lines, and only country who helped was Japan. "We need this (foreign exchange) reserve buffer to insulate ourselves because we have no friends.
Indian Olympic Association (IOA) President PT Usha has proposed that only disciplines featuring in the Olympics, Commonwealth and Asian Games be considered for inclusion in the future National Games,
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) draft guidelines on gold loans, if implemented in their current form, are expected to impact non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and mid-tier banks in the near term, more significantly than larger banks, according to analysts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) abstained from selling any US dollars throughout February, for the first time in nine months. The decision comes amid increasing pressure on the rupee, as expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve keep pushing back. The last time the RBI did not sell dollar over a month was in May 2023.
A trends study conducted by India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has expressed suspicion that cryptocurrency is being used across the country in serious criminal acts like terrorist financing, fuelling secessionist activities, cybercrime, narcotics trafficking, illegal betting and gambling. The report, which was based on suspicious transaction reports and operational analysis, shared these trends and credible intelligence with law enforcement agencies.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) conducted raids on the premises of Rajasthan Congress leader and former minister Pratap Singh Khachariyawas and Punjab AAP MLA Kulwant Singh as part of a money laundering probe linked to the Rs 48,000-crore PACL Ponzi scam. Khachariyawas, who served as a minister in the Ashok Gehlot government, claimed the ED action was politically motivated due to his criticism of the government. Singh, a real estate promoter, is reported to be Punjab's richest MLA with assets worth Rs 1,000 crore. The ED has been investigating the PACL scam since 2015, alleging that the company defrauded investors of Rs 48,000 crore through fraudulent investment schemes.
Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson Sonia Gandhi has criticized the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, calling it a 'brazen assault' on the Constitution and part of the BJP's strategy to keep society in a 'permanent state of polarization.' She also spoke out against the One Nation, One Election Bill, calling it a 'subversion of the Constitution.' Gandhi further accused the Modi government of ignoring the women's reservation bill and other demands for reservation, and of 'dragging the country into an abyss' where the Constitution will only exist on paper. She also criticized the government for limiting the speaking time of the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament and for not allowing discussions on important issues like the working of the defense and external affairs ministries and the challenges posed by China on the border.
In the three decades since reservation of seats for women in panchayati raj institutions was introduced, the country saw women dismantling gender barriers to take the lead in the political field at the grassroots level and excel in it.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Investor wealth eroded by Rs 4.46 lakh crore in a single day on Friday with the benchmark BSE Sensex tanking more than 1 per cent in line with global stocks rout. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 885.60 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 80,981.95 with 25 of its components declining and five ending with gains. During the day, it nosedived 998.64 points or 1.21 per cent to hit an intra-day low of 80,868.91.
A group of people staged a protest on Wednesday against alleged "caste discrimination" at the Indian Institute of Management-Bengaluru (IIM-B), demanding the removal of its director. However, IIM Bangalore denied the allegations made by the protesters.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the major factors that would dictate terms in the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. From the global front, interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan would also influence market trends.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
Tahawwur Rana, a Canadian citizen and native of Pakistan, was extradited to India to face charges related to his alleged role in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. The US Department of Justice said Rana allegedly commended the LeT terrorists who carried out the attacks and suggested they should be awarded Pakistan's highest gallantry award. Rana is accused of facilitating a fraudulent cover for his childhood friend, David Headley, to conduct surveillance in Mumbai for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group. He is also accused of helping Headley submit false visa applications to Indian authorities. This extradition follows a lengthy legal process that began in 2020 with India's request for Rana's surrender. Rana, who was previously convicted in the US for providing material support to LeT, will now face trial in India on 10 criminal charges related to the Mumbai attacks.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
After an extremely stable 2023, the Indian rupee started 2024 on a promising note and has turned out to be the best-performing Asian currency so far in January, appreciating 0.1 per cent despite 2 per cent rise in the dollar index. All other Asian currencies depreciated by around 1.4-4 per cent during the month. The local currency regained its ground against the greenback on the back of foreign portfolio inflows, said market participants.
'Investors with foreign currency-denominated goals, such as foreign education or foreign travel, should go for US equity funds.'
From the Sensex basket, Sun Pharma, Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Titan, ITC, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro and JSW Steel were the major gainers. On the other hand, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finserv were among the laggards.
From the Sensex basket, NTPC, Power Grid, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Bharti Airtel, Maruti, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
Noting that these three Cs haunt Indian education today, the Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson said in an article that this "carnage" of India's public education system must end.
This was Rana's last legal chance not to be extradited to India. Earlier, he lost a legal battle in several federal courts, including the US Court of Appeals for the North Circuit in San Francisco.
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
'When interest rates rise, the NAVs of these funds will fall.' However, they won't fall as much as longer-duration funds.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
'Retail investors, who had not seen such a massive correction in the SMID universe since COVID-19, are witnessing something like this for the first time. Panic profit booking may continue.'
'India's fundamentals are a lot better (than those of other emerging market economies).' 'India will suffer (witness a fall in its stock market) what I call the second order effect.' 'And the second order will happen when these funds (belonging to macro and hedge fund investors and which have leveraged Japanese yen-carry trades), because they lose money elsewhere as lot of their positions were financed by borrowing Japanese yen, will have to book profits in investment destinations where they are making money, including in markets like India.' 'They (these investors) will have to effectively sell in countries like India and which is the consequence (the crash in equity markets) that Indian markets might see.'
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their fresh record levels on Thursday after lower inflation numbers raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the RBI. Besides, heavy buying in capital goods, consumer durable and industrial stocks also helped the indices, traders said. Retail inflation continued its downward slide to reach a one-year low of 4.75 per cent in May due to a marginal decline of prices in the food basket and remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone of below 6 per cent, according to government data released on Wednesday.
'Young investors should focus more on equity, while retired senior citizens should prioritise fixed income.' 'Mid-career investors should aim for a balanced allocation.'
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